Monday, April 28, 2008

So Long CDMA

An event this auspicious can't be left without mention. Today is the day that Telstra will close its CDMA network.

Australia is finally joining most mobile operators in the world in using GSM (or officially WCDMA) technology to deliver their network, rather than CDMA which is used in very few markets (less than 14% of the total mobile phones users in the world are on CDMA).

Former CDMA users will see major benefits in better technology evolution and access to a better range of handsets at more competitive prices. Telstra will see the benefits of harmonising its platforms and the whole mobile eco-system will benefit from the Next G technology which is a major evolution in mobile data services.

Coverage issues for regional users will plague Telstra for some time, as will handset availability because of the 850mhz spectrum being used (see earlier posts) but even those issues can't stop progress.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Morphing Mobiles

Checkout Nokia Morph http://www.nokia.com/A4852062

Its a concept Nokia has developed using nanotechnology which allows a mobile device to change shape.....it may be a glimpse into the future or it may just be another crazy idea with no legs, you decide.

Instand Messenger for Mobiles

A few operators around the world are already offering MSN and Yahoo messenger on your mobile (checkout 3 xseries), however there's also a lot more that are dragging their heels. From a user perspective, IM seems like the next evolution of SMS, allowing a lot more features, in particular seeing the presence settings of your friends (online, away, busy) but it also comes with a whole lot of barbs for Mobile Operators, which as in most cases such as these are around the charging model for traditional IP services.

IM is more relevant now than ever due to the very fast move to broadband capable networks, however if mobile operators allow you to have IM in its current form, the theory is that you'll stop sending sms messages which generate between 10-20% of total usage revenues for many developed-market operators today.

The GSM Association has a major campaign in-place to establish a GSM operator community standard for IM, http://www.gsmworld.com/personal_im/. The program is about setting the conditions (technical and business-model) for offering IM services to mobile customers. Their basic principle is that with somewhere between 2 and 3 billion people with a GSM phone, they have a bigger community of potential IM users than MSN and Yahoo and therefore should be able to influence the business model.

Many mobile operators don't want to go down the path of interoperating with MSN and Yahoo because it won't allow them to use a Calling-Party-Pays model. This means instead of getting revenue per message they would only get revenue from you connecting to the internet and opening up your IM client. There's not many mobile operators who will happily swallow that, particularly as it will not only be a missed opportunity but also a big cannibilisation of their current sms revenues.

The whole concept of calling-party-pays and how it relates to internet usage/IP services on a mobile phone is a massive issue for the global industry and IM is an excellent, tangible example of the paradoxes hich exist. There are signs however of a shift, whether intential or not with the proliferation of the wonderful new 2gb for $15 usb dongle plans that are springing up everywhere around the world.

Mobile operators continue to fight hard to prevent themselves from becoming mobile-network based ISP's, but I think there's a growing trend in the industry towards accepting this and a focus on getting as many users on as possible, after all its not a bad business! More on this one later.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

3 Billion Mobile Subscribers

Global UMTS/HSPA subscribers reached the 3bn subscribers mark in the last-week. This is a milestone that no other industry I'm aware of can boast. For those of us in developed countries, its easy to become compacent about how mobile technology has changed our life and will continue to do so.

In developing countries, the impact of communications is profund and changes the lives of people in ways that many of us don't appreciate. Communications has the potential to empower individuals and communities, indeed access to telecommunications forms a main element of the UN's Millenium Development Goals.

In developing nations, telecommunications helps people find work, build businesses, learn and stay in touch with distant relatives. It is used in the monitoring of disease, the notification of disaster, as a tool for disbursing micro-credit, for paying bills and as a lifeline to communities which, in many cases do not even have access to reliable electricity.

Without the legacy fixed-line infrastructure of developed countries and with the cost of building a mobile network being significantly cheaper than a fixed-line network, uptake in developing nations in particular is astounding with over 1million new subscribers being added every day.

Mobile Internet - The Elephant in a Bird Cage

Its here and it feels like mobile internet has come from nowhere in a big hurry. Of course, there will be those that remember the WAP debacle and the various, faltering lurches made by mobile operators around the world in launching mobile data products over the last few-years (a friend recently asked me about the fate of i-mode) and here's an article about why both Telstra and 02 UK ultimately canned it. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/07/23/imode_fails/

But thats all behind us, its here now and I don't just mean downloading of gimmicky ringtones and content. This is THE hottest topic for mobile operators almost everywhere in the world and for so many reasons, this post talks mainly about usability and how mobile operators are brining you the web to your mobile

The big challenge for Mobile internet (and the genesis of the elephant metaphor) is the fact that websites were not built to run on small screens, they were also designed with a nice big keyboard and mouse in mind and their demand on bandwidth grows faster than even the rapid deployment of fast mobile networks can keep pace with.

Mobile operators in Australia are overwhelmingly taking the portal approach, (Optus MyZoo, Planet3, Vodafone Live & Telstra Bigpond). There's two main reasons for mobile operators adopting the portal approach. Firstly, quality of service can be guaranteed by your operator if they control the portal, this is something that mobile customers are especially senstitive to.

Secondly and possibly more cynicaly, mobile operators by controlling what you access and how you access it can also control the amount you pay, and the amount that advertisers pay to get onto your tiny little mobile screen. Even more simply, mobile operators don't want to go down the path of ISP's where they become dumb-pipes, providing you with some bandwidth and having nothing more to do with your mobile internet experience.

I do acknowledge here the proliferation in Australia of the '5gb for $29.95' mobile broadband plans but these are confined to the use of a USB modem plugged into your laptop (internet via a mobile network rather than truly mobile internet....though even that vague distinction is blurring).

For handset manufacturers, the problem is quite different. Their relationship with you really ends once you've opened the box (although they'd all like to change that). Therefore the manufacturers are putting their efforts into rendering technology, effectively providing a mobile browser that can tailor a website designed for the 'big screen' to work on your mobile. Nokia does this well, unsurprisingly so does Apple and no doubt Google's android will make major advancements in this area.

For the mobile industry as a group, the focus has been on putting together rules for content development that will make websites work better on the mobile handsets and make it easier for developers to know how to create them. http://www.w3.org/Mobile/

Then there's the ever contraversial .mobi, a new top-level domain created specifically to denote websites that will work on mobiles http://www.mtld.mobi/. Critics of the domain say it is polarising the internet and creating a mobile 'ghetto' rather than a single web that is device/access technology agnostic. Supporters say its the best way of offering a reliable way for all website owners to denote a mobile friendly space, rather than the hit and miss that exists now. Whatever your view, check out the investor list....its the most interesting cross-section of companies working together in this space I've ever seen.

Whatever the answer, the news is good for everybody. Accessing data services on mobile devices is THE trend of the next five years for everybody along the value chain and the direction and opportunities that this will take are very much still up for grabs.

iPhone for Australia

At the risk of being handset-centric, the following article on the imminent arrival of the iPhone to Australia (or at least rumours of) is interesting.

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Australia's blogging community is awash with speculation that Apple is planning to launch a multi-carrier, contract-free 3G version of the iPhone in the country in June. The source, an Australian Mac user website, claims the launch is timed to coincide with Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and the opening of a new flagship Apple store in Sydney.
No version of the iPhone has been released yet in Australia.


The source claims that as Telstra is the only Australian operator with an EDGE network - the network the current iPhone uses - Apple has little bargaining power to negotiate an exclusive arrangement with an operator in the way it has in other countries. Instead, it is suggested Apple will launch the new 3G version of the iPhone that is able to work with all Australian 3G network operators.

This multi-carrier approach also means that Apple would have no reason to lock users into lengthy contracts. The source adds that as there are relatively few Apple and operator-branded stores in Australia, Apple will instead allow the device to be sold via resellers in the same way it sells other products such as iPods.

The source claims that Apple Australia has already informed select Australian resellers of its
plans. However, it has allegedly given each reseller a different launch date in the same week so it can spot the culprit if launch details are leaked.
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This is significant news for Australia but possibly even more significant for Apple for a number of reasons. Firstly, if the rumours are true, this will possibly be the first iPhone launch that didn't involve Apple striking a deal with mobile operators for ongoing incremental revenue sharing and also the first time this blogger is aware of where Apple has not done an exclusive launch with a mobile operator.

This will also be the first 3G iPhone launched, many pundits were amazed that Apple would launch their handset with 2.5 (Edge) only, so this will be welcome and much anticipated news. For my two-cents on why Apple launched with Edge, the author believes the two major drivers for this decision were the higher relative cost of 3G chipsets and because the big buzz factor for Apple was less the ability to access fast internet, and more the revolution in form and OS. This will change quickly though and we will see Apple moving very fast to bring 3G on in most of its regions very soon.

The iPhone is a major event in the mobile phone industry, barriers to entry for new manufacturers are high, design takes a long time to get right and brand even longer so Apple releasing something in this space is an excellent shot in the arm for an industry thats dominated by a few manufacturers.

Relating back to an earlier blog, Telstra's NextG customers will possibly miss-out, at least initially as Apple is unlikely to be offering an 850 variant for quite some time.